May 28, 2020

UFC DraftKings Picks: DFS strategy for UFC on 5/30/2020

After a short break following 3 UFC events that were hosted in the span of a week in Jacksonville, FL, UFC is coming back with another great card on Saturday, May 30th.

In the main event of the evening, former UFC welterweight champion Tyron Woodley will be taking on a Brazilian martial artist Gilbert Burns. We’ll also see a few intriguing matchups between ranked heavyweights Blagoy Ivanov and Augusto Sakai, wild flyweights Tim Elliott and Brandon Royval, and women’s bout between Antonina Shevchenko and Katlyn Chookagian.

If you are looking for some daily fantasy sports action, I recommend you look no further than Draftkings. There are a lot of tournaments on Draftkings for this Saturday’s UFC event and I am personally playing multiple lineups in the MMA $80K Haymaker ($3 entry), MMA $12K Sprawl ($4 entry), and MMA $50K mini-MAX ($1 entry).

Below, I’ll share my thoughts on the upcoming UFC fights and I will give my predictions and best Draftkings picks for UFC’s event on Saturday, May 30th.

  • Daniel Rodriguez ($7,300)

Daniel Rodriguez is one of the most obvious choices among DFS players and he should be a key part of your Draftkings lineup as well. Rodriguez was originally scheduled to fight Kevin Holland and he was a +180 underdog which is the reason why he is so cheaply priced at $7,300 on Draftkings.

Holland was forced to pull from the fight with Rodriguez because of the injury and UFC quickly found a replacement in Gabriel Green. So now we have Daniel Rodriguez who is still priced at $7,300 on Draftkings but from being an underdog he turned into a big -350 favorite according to bookmakers.

Am I targeting one of the cheapest fighters with such a high probability of winning? Absolutely! There is no question Rodriguez is the best value play in MMA Draftkings tournaments this week.

  • Brok Weaver ($7,000)

Brok Weaver is my second favorite value pick on the card but he seems like a much riskier option than Daniel Rodriguez. Brok Weaver will be fighting against Roosevelt Roberts and he is a +250 underdog according to bookmakers.

In my opinion, bookmakers are underestimating Brok Weaver because of the unimpressive performance in his UFC debut against Rodrigo Vargas. In that fight, Weaver had a lot of hype around him and he was expected to dominate Vargas. Well, the fight didn’t go as planned for Weaver and he was getting beat up by Vargas until he was hit with an illegal knee. Weaver lucked out and ended up winning his UFC debut via DQ.

Despite that, I still look at Brok Weaver as a talented fighter with a bright future in the UFC’s lightweight division. For whatever reason, he didn’t show his best performance in his first fight in the UFC but now he has an opportunity to change the first impression. Roosevelt Roberts is a serious but not an unbeatable opponent for Brok Weaver. At such a low price on Draftkings, he is definitely worth consideration in my opinion.

  • Mackenzie Dern ($9,300)

I normally don’t like to make predictions on women’s MMA and pick female fighters in my DFS lineups because of their lower fantasy ceiling in most cases.

But I will play Mackenzie Dern in a few of my lineups because there is an upside in this pick and a decent chance that she can finish Hannah Cifers in the first or second round. Mackenzie Dern, a BJJ black belt, is a much better grappler than her opponent and if she takes it to the ground she will submit Hannah Cifers.

  • Tyron Woodley ($8,800)

Tyron Woodley is a former UFC welterweight champ. He lost his title in a fifth title defense to the current champion Kamaru Usman. At Fight Night on May 30th, Woodley will be facing Gilbert Burns. Burns is riding a five-fight win streak and coming off a first-round victory against Demian Maia a few months ago.

Honestly, I don’t see Burns beating Woodley as Tyron is just a higher level and more experienced fighter than Gilbert. Burns is on a hot streak but he is yet to face a fighter of Woodley’s caliber. Also, he has no experience of fighting in the main event in the UFC which might play its role if this fight goes into championship rounds.

I am not concerned about Woodley’s skills as he is a more skillful fighter in this matchup but there are some questions about his motivation. Is he all-in it or he is not as motivated to fight against Gilbert Burns?

Are you going to play MMA daily fantasy sports for this UFC’s event? What is your opinion on my picks and predictions? What are your favorite plays and who do you stack in your Draftkings lineups?

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