February 23, 2019

Khabib Nurmagomedov vs Tony Ferguson UFC 249 Fight/Predictions

UPDATE: Khabib vs Ferguson fight at UFC 249 was canceled due to Nurmagomedov pulling out because of the global pandemic. Instead, Justin Gaethje will replace “The Eagle” and he will fight “El Cucuy” on May 9th at UFC 249. You can check out our predictions and betting tips for Ferguson vs Gaethje bout.

Now that Khabib Nurmagomedov has defended his lightweight belt two times against Conor McGregor and Dustin Poirier, he has a plethora of title defense options to choose from.

Some fans are calling for Khabib to move up to welterweight and take a shot to become a double champ; others are clamoring for him to take-on all-time-great Georges St. Pierre at catchweight 160 lbs. But most of us are eager to see him and longtime rival Tony Ferguson, who most recently beat Anthony Pettis and Donald Cerrone, finally settle their business.

For readers who aren’t aware, Khabib and Ferguson’s rivalry dates back more than half a decade, and although they’ve both been at the top of the UFC’s lightweight division for that time (Ferguson hasn’t lost since 2012, and Khabib hasn’t lost at all), they still haven’t fought.

In one of the oddest and most unfortunate sagas in MMA history, Nurmagomedov and Ferguson have been previously booked to compete four times, with the latest planned outing being at UFC 223, but both men have been forced to withdraw for a multitude of reasons.

Some fans and pundits have stated that the bout is cursed, and there might be something to the claim. Even Dana White had mentioned that he will never book Khabib vs Ferguson fight ever again.

With that said, perhaps we’ve been granted a chance to break any potential curse that’s inhibiting the bout’s occurrence. Nurmagomedov and Ferguson have won consistently and impressively for some time now, and especially because they’re the two best lightweights in the UFC, that’s a feat to be proud of.

Let’s take a closer look at how a legacy fight between Khabib Nurmagomedov and Tony Ferguson could play out if both men will finally face each other at UFC 249 on April 18, 2020. You might not know but in the undercard at UFC 249 will also fight Khabib’s 24-year-old cousin Umar Nurmagomedov.

Khabib vs Tony fight booked for 5th time for April 18, 2020

Khabib vs Ferguson canceled fights

Khabib and Tony were previously scheduled to fight four times but they both pulled out twice from these scheduled bouts. Here is a little bit of history on a rivalry between “The Eagle” and “El Cucuy”.

1) Nurmagomedov vs Ferguson 1:0.

At the Ultimate Fighter 22 Finale which was set for December 11, 2015, in Las Vegas. At the time, Khabib was struggling with a bunch of serious injuries which almost ended his career. Khabib pulled out from the fight with Ferguson at the end of October because he broke a rib while training.

In one of the interviews, Khabib said: “I’m not sure I’ll be back at all ever, thank you very much to all my fans”. Tony Ferguson at the time was on a 6-fight winning streak and ranked #9 in the Lightweight rankings. He ended up facing Edson Barboza and Tony submitted him in the 2nd round.

2) Nurmagomedov vs Ferguson 1:1.

At the UFC on Fox 19 which was set to go down on April 16, 2016, in Tampa. Khabib Nurmagomedov vs Tony Ferguson fight was canceled for the second time – “El Cucuy” withdraw on 11 days notice because he had fluid and blood in his lungs. Ferguson was replaced by Darrell Horcher; Khabib took this fight at catchweight 160 lbs and got a win via TKO in the 2nd round.

3) Nurmagomedov vs Ferguson 2:1.

At the UFC 209 on March 4, 2017, in Las Vegas which was meant to be an interim lightweight championship fight. It seemed like it was actually going to happen… Until Khabib pulled out a night before weigh-ins because of the health issues related to cutting weight. “The Eagle” was hospitalized with severe liver pain and dehydration. Tony handled this situation like a true champ.

4) Nurmagomedov vs Ferguson 2:2.

At the UFC 223 on April 7, 2018, in New York for the UFC Lightweight belt. 6 days prior to the fight Tony Ferguson had to withdraw because of the knee injury – he tripped while walking and tore his lateral collateral ligament. Dana White soon announced that Ferguson will be stripped of the interim title. UFC replaced Tony with Max Holloway but Max also pulled because of the weight cut issues. For the LW championship belt, Khabib ended up facing Al Iaquinta and won the title fight via unanimous decision.

What happened since Nurmagomedov became an undisputed champion? Tony Ferguson recovered from the knee injury and fought on the same card at UFC 229 as Khabib vs McGregor. “El Cucuy” was very impressive in his wins over Anthony Pettis and Donald Cerrone which got him back in a title picture.

So, what happens next? Khabib and Tony are both on an incredible 12 fight win streaks. Also, both men can be considered as two of the best lightweights of all time that’s why their bout at UFC 249 is very special – it’s not just another fight… It’s an end to their epic 5-year rivalry, it’s a legacy fight for Nurmagomedov, Ferguson, UFC, and all of us fans around the world.

Khabib vs Ferguson at press conference

“Styles make fights”

Khabib Nurmagomedov is first and foremost a wrestler and he is extremely comfortable and confident in his ground game skills. The Dagestani competitor has been wrestling since he was young, and his years upon years of experience show today, every time he powers fantastic fighters to the canvas without breaking a sweat.

Khabib also has decent striking (his boxing is getting better from fight to fight) – we saw some impressive stand-up moments from Nurmagomedov against Al Iaquinta, Conor McGregor, and Dustin Poirier. But no question about it, his grappling is his bread and butter, and it’s also the main reason why he is still undefeated with a 28-0 professional MMA record.

Tony Ferguson, on the other hand, is a well-rounded brawler. “El Cucuy” is an appropriate nickname for Ferguson, who is the closest thing to a monster that we’ve seen inside the octagon. He is famous for his unorthodox stalking style and overwhelming pressure. Tony has great takedowns and defensive grappling off his back; he trains with BJJ powerhouse Eddie Bravo. But he most often rushes across the octagon, bites down on his mouthpiece, and tries to find a home for thunderous punches, nasty elbows, and vicious leg kicks.

To be sure, a big part of the reason Ferguson is such a fan favorite is that he shows his opponents very little respect; he throws caution to the wind and gives the men who stand opposite him a fight unlike any other.

Tony Ferguson is the most dangerous opponent for Khabib Nurmagomedov

Tony Ferguson is the most dangerous and unorthodox opponent “The Eagle” fought in his entire career.

Predictions for Khabib vs Ferguson fight

As underrated Khabib Nurmagomedov’s striking is, he doesn’t want to stand across the cage from Tony Ferguson, for a couple of different reasons.

First, Tony can hit anyone from anywhere. He’s quick, his timing is impeccable, and he cuts tremendous angles that constantly leave even the best stand-up fighters guessing. It will be a huge risk for Khabib to play stand-up games in the first or second round.

Second, Khabib is a wrestler by nature, and the truth is that unless he decides to move up to welterweight division, he’s going to possess a grappling advantage over anyone he faces. Thus, if he’s standing up and boxing, he’s playing to Ferguson’s strength and not his own.

Nurmagomedov will probably initiate the contest by charging Ferguson, timing a takedown, and assuming top control for the most part of the bout. Tony will try to resist, and he may have some success, but the reality is that no man has been able to defend Khabib’s takedowns. No doubt, Khabib will take Tony down to the canvas.

From the bottom, though, Ferguson will have options, he likes to fight off his back. He can immediately fall into D’Arce choke formation – he submitted Lando Vanatta and Edson Barboza with this maneuver. Additionally, even if said attempts aren’t successful in drawing a tap, they can help Ferguson to improve his position on the ground or help to confuse Khabib. He can also kick Nurmagomedov off and stand up – but it is much easier said than done.

Ferguson probably won’t expect to win a decision, and that’ll show in his approach to the match. Just as no one has been able to thwart Khabib’s takedowns and only Conor McGregor was able to win a round against “The Eagle”.  Fans should expect Tony to work hard to land a big shot or tight submission on Khabib early, attempt to wear the Russian down if these attempts fail, and then unload during the latter portion of the fourth and all of the fifth stanzas.

Nurmagomedov has been known to slow down in later rounds, and with his phenomenal cardio, Tony will probably try to take advantage of this (as long as this fight lasts that long). For Khabib, a finish is almost out of the question. Ferguson hasn’t been knocked out yet, and it doesn’t look as though he’ll be stopped with strikes in the near future. More dangerously, Khabib could well gas himself out if he expends too much energy searching for the knockout victory.

Who will win Khabib vs Tony bout?

With all this considered, either man can win. Whoever is able to better impose his gameplan from the get-go will have his hand raised.

For Khabib, this means staying calm and keeping energy up across twenty-five minutes of combat. For Ferguson, this means working consistently and diligently while not becoming overly susceptible to takedowns.

Despite the 12-fight winning streak, bookmakers see Tony Ferguson as an underdog against Nurmagomedov. Prior to their latest canceled fight in 2018, Nurmagomedov was set at -200, and Ferguson was at +165.

Since then, Khabib won and defended his LW title, upgraded his stand-up and boxing, stayed healthy, and avoided injuries. Tony, on the other hand, suffered a serious injury, went through knee surgery but come back strong with a win vs Pettis. By the way, it’s worth mentioning that Tony’s fight against Pettis wasn’t one-sided – Anthony was close to winning and who knows what would have happened if he didn’t break his hand during one of the exchanges.

Stylistically, Ferguson is not the worst matchup for Khabib and that’s the reason why Khabib is a favorite to win according to bookmakers and most experts.

Here is Ben Askren’s opinion on who will win Khabib vs Ferguson fight.

There’s no telling what the future will bring for the UFC’s lightweight division, which has long been its most competitive class but is now, additionally, its most profitable division.

Superfights and special match-ups, not to mention injuries and other setbacks, can impact the process through which contenders are selected. But, if the UFC decides to follow the rankings and let the champion, Nurmagomedov, and number-one-contender, Ferguson, entertain fans, one of the best fights in promotional history could result.

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