Masvidal vs Diaz press conference
Photo by Michael Owens/Zuffa LLC/Zuffa LLC)

Betting tips/predictions for Masvidal vs Diaz BMF title fight at UFC 244

Jorge Masvidal vs Nate Diaz is one of the most anticipated UFC bouts of 2019. Masvidal and Diaz will compete at UFC 244 main event for the first-ever “BMF” (“baddest motherf*cker”) title belt. Their fight will take place this upcoming Saturday at Madison Square Garden in New York.

Here, we will share our analysis, predictions and best betting tips for Masvidal vs Diaz fight.

Drama with Nate’s positive drug test

First of all, before moving on to predictions, let’s just remind ourselves that this fight almost fell apart just a few days ago. What happened is, Diaz out of nowhere tweeted that he would not fight at UFC 244 “because they say I tested with elevated levels that they say might be from some tainted supplements.”

Apparently, he had tested positive for a banned substance LGD-4033 which has an anabolic and muscle-building effect. But the next day after Nate Diaz’s tweet, UFC released a statement saying that detected amounts of LGD-4033 substance did not reach a minimum threshold for a failed drug test and it got into his body from a plant-based multivitamin. Diaz did not violate USADA’s anti-doping policy and he was officially cleared to fight at UFC 244.

What are the best bets for Masvidal vs Diaz fight?

If you are planning to do some UFC betting this upcoming weekend, who should you bet your money on, Jorge Masvidal or Nate Diaz? According to bookmakers, Masvidal is currently a -175 favorite to beat Diaz who is an underdog at +145. There is been a huge shift in the odds because when the fight was just announced, both fighters were even at -110.

How so, you may ask? Well, there is been a lot of hype around Jorge after his back-to-back knockout wins against Darren Till (who will also fight at UFC 244) and Ben Askren. By the way, Masvidal’s flying knee vs Ben Askren broke UFC’s record as the fastest ever knockout. Obviously, these eye-catching performances began a hype train around Masvidal and it’s basically a reason why more people are putting their money on Jorge. Masvidal flying knee KO Ben Askren But if you analyze Masvidal’s fights and look past that flying knee (I know it’s hard because it was SOMETHING), Jorge doesn’t really have the tools to beat Diaz.

Prior to the bout with Till, Masvidal was an underdog and had 2 straight losses against Demian Maia and Stephen Thompson. Yes, he managed to KO Till which was a big surprise but you cannot ignore a fact that Darren almost finished Jorge in the 1st round, generally looked better most of the fight and he just got caught. As simple as that – it’s what MMA is about, it’s part of the game. A better athlete not necessarily wins on one given night just like in any other sport.

A 5-second performance against Ben Askren (Masvidal was also an underdog at +170) was impressive but I don’t really see how it’s going play any role against Nate Diaz. Don’t be naive, forget about flying knee and a 5 second KO. The truth is, we haven’t actually seen Masvidal in real action since his fight with Till.

I’m not trying to make it sound that Masvidal is actually horrible and the last two fights were just pure luck. He surely had some luck but he is also a dangerous striker (always a chance to win), and he had a smart game plan against Till and Askren which is why he KO’d both.

And still, I won’t jump on Masvidal’s hype train against Diaz as I don’t see how he improved since he fought Maia/Thompson in 2017. To me, he is exactly the same fighter with the same strengths and skills but on a two-fight win streak.

Speaking of Nate Diaz, he was coming back to fight Anthony Pettis after a very long absence from the octagon. We had no idea what to expect from Nate but, in my opinion, he looked even better than he did against Conor McGregor in his prime. Diaz was dominating throughout the fight and did not give a chance to Pettis. So, who should you bet on in Masvidal vs Diaz fight? I don’t doubt Jorge has chances to beat Nate but in this particular fight, I just don’t see him finishing Diaz in the early rounds. Diaz is a smart fighter with great cardio, he has an experienced of going through 5 rounds and I can see him being careful and maybe even surviving until the second half of the bout. The bet I feel the most comfortable with is that Masvidal vs Diaz’s fight at UFC 244 will go over 2 rounds. If I were to bet on a winner, I would put my money on Nate Diaz as it is a 50/50 fight and the only reason Masvidal is a favorite because of the hype bandwagon around him. A risk of betting on Masvidal’s win is not worth it. If you believe in Jorge’s win, it makes more sense to bet that the bout will go into later rounds instead – at higher odds and potentially a higher payout at equal risk. If you feel risky and believe in Nate Diaz’s victory, I also like to bet a small amount on Nate finishing Jorge in either the 4th or 5th round (KO, TKO, or submission). This fight could go the distance as these two are tough “baddest motherf*ckers” in the UFC but keeping in mind Nate’s cardio and submission skills, it’s not an unreasonable prediction.

What is your predictions for the main event at UFC 244? Who are you betting on, Jorge Masvidal or Nate Diaz?

The main photo by Michael Owens/Zuffa LLC/Zuffa LLC)

Speaking of Nate Diaz, he was coming back to fight Anthony Pettis after a very long absence from the octagon. We had no idea what to expect from Nate but, in my opinion, he looked even better than he did against Conor McGregor in his prime. Diaz was dominating throughout the fight and did not give a chance to Pettis.

So, who should you bet on in Masvidal vs Diaz fight? I don’t doubt Jorge has chances to beat Nate but in this particular fight, I just don’t see him finishing Diaz in the early rounds. Diaz is a smart fighter with great cardio, he has an experienced of going through 5 rounds and I can see him being careful and maybe even surviving (if he has to) until the second half of the bout.

The bet I feel the most comfortable with is that Masvidal vs Diaz’s fight at UFC 244 will go over 2 rounds. If I were to bet on a winner, I would put my money on Nate Diaz as it is a 50/50 fight and the only reason Masvidal is a favorite because of the hype bandwagon around him. A risk of betting on Masvidal’s win is not worth it.

If you believe in Jorge’s win, it makes more sense to bet that the bout will go into later rounds instead – at higher odds and potentially a higher payout at equal risk. If you feel risky and believe in Nate Diaz’s victory, I also like to bet a small amount on Nate finishing Jorge in either the 4th or 5th round (KO, TKO, or submission). This fight could go the distance as these two are tough “baddest motherf*ckers” in the UFC but keeping in mind Nate’s cardio and submission skills, it’s not an unreasonable prediction.

What is your predictions for the main event at UFC 244? Who are you betting on, Jorge Masvidal or Nate Diaz?

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