September 2, 2019

Odds & betting on UFC 242: best bets for Khabib vs Poirier

In the main event at UFC 242 in Abu-Dhabi, the Lightweight champion Khabib Nurmagomedov will be defending his title against an interim champ Dustin Poirier.

Previously, we already did an analysis of the matchup and made our predictions for Khabib vs Poirier bout. Below, we have some statistics, tips and advice on the best bets for UFC 242 event and Khabib vs Poirier fight in particular.

Khabib Nurmagomedov (-380) vs Dustin Poirier (+290)

Khabib without a doubt is a highly favorite to beat Poirier at UFC 242. I actually feel like bookmakers give very generous odds for this fight because Khabib should be at like -500 not -380.

Stylistically, Poirier is a comfortable matchup for Khabib. The undefeated champ is comfortable fighting against elite strikers and kickers which he already showed with wins over Michael Johnson, Edson Barboza and Conor McGregor. On the other hand, Khabib is a very bad matchup for Poirier who doesn’t have strong takedown defense and who never fought a wrestler of Nurmagomedov’s caliber.

In general, I feel like Poirier is been overrated and overhyped ahead of the UFC 242. Don’t take me wrong – overall he is a great fighter and one of the top lightweights out there at the moment. But fighting Khabib is not exactly the same as facing Justin Gaethje or featherweight Max Holloway.

We all know how unpredictable MMA is and that underdogs in the UFC end up beating favorites on a regular basis. It’s not going to happen in this matchup – don’t waste your money on betting against Nurmagomedov.

Best bets and predictions for UFC 242 fights and Khabib vs Poirier bout

Best bets for Khabib vs Poirier:

  • Khabib Nurmagomedov to win (-380) – as part of the parlay bet.
  • Fight doesn’t go to decision (-125). Al Iaquinta was able to survive 5 rounds in the championship fight against Khabib but I don’t see Poirier being able to successfully stop takedowns from “The Eagle” like Iaquinta did.
  • Nurmagomedov wins in round 2 (+600) – Khabib is usually very aggressive in the 2nd round and there is a chance he will finish Poirier in the 2nd round. This bet worth a risk with the odds at +600.
  • Poirier wins in round 1 (+1200) – it’s a risky bet if you believe Dustin can beat Khabib (I personally don’t). Basically, Dustin’s only chance to win this fight is to knockout Khabib early in the fight.

Edson Barboza (-175) vs Paul Felder (+145)

Man, Barboza vs Felder is a tough fight for predictions. I would recommend to skip this one unless you have a very strong opinion on this fight.

According to bookmakers, Barboza is a slightly favorite (-175) in this matchup but in reality this fight is 50/50 and it can go either direction. Barboza and Felder are very familiar with each other as they already fought at UFC on Fox 16 event back in 2015. Barboza defeated Felder via unanimous decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28) which was a very close fight.

Edson is a higher ranked and seems like a higher level fighter (he faced the best guys in the Lightweight division) than Felder but something tells me that Barboza is not the same fighter as he was back in 2015.

Barboza is still very dangerous with his leg kicks but his weaknesses are being exposed numerous times by now. If Felder will be able to close the distance, put persistent pressure and keep Barboza against the cage, he will have a good chance to win this war.

Once again, Barboza vs Felder fight is not my favorite to bet on this UFC 242 card but if I were to pick a winner, I would go with Paul Felder with odds at +145.

Islam Makhachev (-255) vs Davi Ramos (+190)

Islam Makhachev preparing for his fight vs Davi Ramos at UFC 242

I really like this combat sambo vs jiu-jitsu matchup and I feel like it will be just as interesting as Makhachev’s last fight against Arman Tsarukyan.

Makhachev is a very talented fighter and with his potential he could easily be in the top 10 in this stacked Lightweight division. He grew up with Khabib and trained with him his whole life. According to Khabib’s father and coach Abdulmanap Nurmagomedov, Makhachev is close to Khabib’s level and their sparrings are pretty even throughout.

Speaking of Davi Ramos, he probably has the best jiu-jitsu in the Lightweight division and he is a master of submissions. Ramos is on a 4-fight winning streak with 3 of those fights ending via rear-naked choke.

How will Makhachev vs Ramos fight play out? I don’t see Ramos submitting Makhachev because Islam is very knowledgeable in the ground game and has lots of wrestling, grappling and BJJ experience. They should just cancel each other out on the ground and it is possible we will see a little bit more striking from them in this fight. In stand-up, neither fighter will have a reach advantage but Makhachev is a more technical striker while Ramos has more power in his shots.

Betting on Makhachev’s win in this fight is a risk (not worth it at -255 odds) because Ramos is just as good as Makhachev on the ground. Ramos is also a very big dude for a Lightweight and his shots may carry serious danger to Makhachev. Islam was KO’d before so I think he will be very careful not to get caught again.

I predict it’s going to be a very close fight. I think Makhachev is more likely to get a decision win but I wouldn’t bet on it because I don’t like the odds.

Curtis Blaydes (-300) vs. Shamil Abdurakhimov (+240)

Blaydes vs Abdurakhimov fight at UFC 242

This is an interesting fight between the two top 10 heavyweights Curtis Blaydes and a 38-year old veteran Shamil Abdurakhimov.

Curtis Blaydes is an extremely talented martial artist and one of the main contenders for the UFC Heavyweight title. Blaydes is only 28 years old but he already has wins against big names in Alistair Overeem, Mark Hunt, Alexei Oleynik and most recently over Justin Willis. Despite his losses to Ngannou, I do believe Blaydes is a more well-rounded fighter that can actually be a serious threat to Stipe Miocic unlike Francis.

Abdurakhimov is a Dagestani fighter, currently #9 in UFC heavyweight rankings. He has a 5-2 UFC record and is on a 3-fight win streak (last win vs Marcin Tybura).

Abdurakhimov is not an easy fight for Blaydes but I believe the American has a lot of advantages over the Russian fighter. My prediction is that Blaydes will finish Abdurakhimov and this fight won’t go the distance.

Pick: Blaydes wins by TKO/KO or submission.

Mairbek Taisumov (-270) vs. Carlos Diego Ferreira (+210)

Taisumov vs Ferreira fight at UFC 242

Taisumov vs Ferreira is yet another Lightweight bout at UFC 242 event.

Mairbek Taisumov heading into this fight as a betting favorite (-270) according to bookmakers. But there is a few things have to be mentioned about Taisumov and Ferreira which could have an affect on the outcome of this bout.

Mairbek Taisumov has an impressive 7-1 record in the UFC, he is on a 6-fight winning streak with 5 of the last 6 wins coming by a way of knockout. It’s impressive to say the least even though Taisumov never fought a top 10 ranked opponent.

Taisumov’s issue is that he cannot get a visa to fight in the US and this problem hasn’t been resolved in 5 years. There is been a lot of rumors about it but it doesn’t look like Taisumov will be issued a US visa anytime soon which means he doesn’t really have a future in the UFC. We also know that this fight with Ferreira is the last one under Taisumov’s current contract with the organization and it’s unknown if he will continue to fight in the UFC or may retire. This fact of uncertainty has to have an affect on Taisumov’s motivation and preparation for this fight with Ferreira.

Something else worth noting is that both Taisumov and Ferreira recently struggled with cutting weight to the lightweight’s limit of 156 lbs. Ferreira missed weight when he fought Rustam Khabilov (he still got a W) and most recently he pulled out on weigh-in day when he was scheduled to face Francisco Trinaldo. There will be a lot of pressure on Ferreira to make weight on September 6. Taisumov also missed weight in his most recent fight against Desmond Green – he was 5 pounds over the limit at weigh-ins.

Considering all of the above and that Ferreira is a solid all-around fighter with a lot of experience, I do like the bet on Ferreira’s win over Taisumov.

What are your picks and predictions for UFC 242 fights? Your opinion is always welcome in the comments below.

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